When a President passes the torch to his successor, he typically will also convey his thoughts as to what the greatest threats to our country will be over the next 4 years. For example, when Bill Clinton left office, he told George Bush that international terrorism was the most important threat while Iraq ranked around fifth. Bush responded by saying that in his opinion, Iraq was the number one threat and terrorism was well down the list. Then 9/11 happened and Clinton was proven to be right.

In an interesting twist, Barack Obama has named North Korea the number 1 threat with Donald Trump clearly taking the position that international terrorism ranks higher. While it is my hope that Obama’s views won’t prove to be as prophetic as Clinton’s, I would also hope that the Trump Administration is not ignoring the threat from North Korea in the way the Bush administration ignored terrorism during its first few months in office.

Assuming that Trump does take this threat seriously, however, he will be confronted with the same questions that vexed Obama. How do we deal with North Korea?  What leverage do we have? Should we try to enact regime change now before they have full capacity to launch a nuclear attack? Most critically, are we willing to risk war with China in order to accomplish that regime change?

I understand there are no easy answers but sitting back and hoping something good will happen is a recipe for nuclear disaster. We need some new thinking and I’d like to suggest the outline of a plan which I’m hoping your comments will help flesh out.  

In 2002, President Bush famously spoke of the “Axis of Evil” which he defined as consisting of Iraq, Iran and North Korea. His intended goal in using this term was to gain support for the coming war in Iraq. The unintended consequence was that it sent both North Korea and Iran careening toward developing nuclear weapons lest the fate that befell Iraq, should befall them.

I believe that our policy, under both Obama and now Trump, has forgotten this linkage between North Korea and Iran.  On the other hand, I think it’s clear that Iran and North Korea have not forgotten it. It is utterly absurd to think that these two countries are not working together to both develop the necessary nuclear technology and to distract the U.S. For example, just in the last week we see Iranian Revolutionary Guard ships harassing a U.S. warship right after North Korea’s latest missile test. Instead of taking action against either one, we’re getting whiplash watching each of them break one international norm after another.

My suggestion therefore is that we stop treating them as separate problems and combine them into one single “Axle Of Evil” and that we direct all diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military pressure toward breaking that Axle. By treating these two countries as a single problem, we can hold each responsible for the other’s actions. If either country violates international norms, the noose tightens on both. China may want to protect North Korea but they have no love for Iran. Russia is the reverse. Neither would be part of an alliance which solely attacks their rogue client but it would be in the interest of both China and Russia to be part of a comprehensive anti-nuclear proliferation effort.

It would also end the incentives for Iran and North Korea to alternate provocative actions. President Bush, through his words and deeds, made these countries part of the same problem. Therefore, the only pathway toward solving that problem and eliminating the threat they pose to civilization, is to break the Axle that links and strengthens them.

Comments?